Who’s in charge of Zimbabwe's military - and who’s ordering the violence?
Welcome to Monday’s FREE edition of the Zimbabwe Daily Briefing.
The worst fears of Zimbabweans, and of the watching world, appear to have been realised as politically-motivated violence continues in the wake of last week’s elections.
Nelson Chamisa and the MDC Alliance are now preparing a legal challenge, which could delay Emmerson Mnangagwa’s inauguration; meanwhile, opposition supporters and members are living in fear of Zimbabwe’s security services.
The investment that is already in Zimbabwe will no doubt stay, and may benefit from a slightly improved business environment. But Mnangagwa now has a hell of a job on his hands to unite the nation and lead it to the better future that he promised.
Today’s Headlines
‘Indiscriminate’ violence will scare off investors and international community
Who’s in charge of the military - and who’s ordering the violence?
Mnangagwa inauguration to wait for possible court challenge: Minister
UK MPs slam Embassy’s pro-Zanu bias
Investor won’t flee Zimbabwe’s profitable platinum mine
‘Indiscriminate’ violence will scare off investors and international community (The Guardian, FT, NewsDay, DW)
The army has been indiscriminately assaulting people in Harare’s high density areas and the city’s satellite towns under the cover of darkness, The Guardian reports. In attacks echoing Robert Mugabe’s regime, suspected armed state security agents have also stormed the homes of known MDC supporters and senior members of the MDC Alliance.
The crackdown appears aimed at preempting any protest on the streets. MDC Alliance President Nelson Chamisa said: “The idea is to intimidate us not to challenge the rigged elections. We will not be moved.” However, he said his is not a violent party. “We will continue to defend the people’s vote through legal and constitutional means.”
The attacks on opposition do not reflect a ruling party that is genuinely committed to uniting and re-building the country. The violence that has been witnessed post elections does not inspire investor confidence, or legitimize Mnangagwa’s rule - and if it continues Zimbabwe will remain under sanctions. In the worst case scenario, Mnangagwa may give up on international redemption and return Zimbabwe to the dictatorship rule.
Who’s in charge of the military - and who’s ordering the violence? (NewsDay)
The Zimbabwe police force has reportedly suspended 16 top officers for how they handled the demonstrations last week that resulted in the death of six unarmed civilians. The involvement of the army on the streets of Harare, and their assault of civilians since then in the city’s high density suburbs, have left many wondering who is really in charge of the military. President Emmerson Mnangagwa told journalists an independent commission of inquiry would be set up to investigate the events.
On Saturday, Mnangagwa sent the Minister of Information, Simon Khaya Moyo, to disperse the riot police that had interrupted Nelson Chamisa’s press conference in Harare. Moments later the President tweeted that the incident was regrettable, and should never happen again.
Last week’s violence risks derailing Mnangagwa’s plan to secure funding from the international community to rebuild Zimbabwe’s economy - and fed speculation that he is not running the show. Many critics have singled out Retired Army General, Constatino Chiwenga who spearheaded Mugabe’s ouster and facilitated for Mnangagwa’s rise to power, as the real power behind Mnangagwa’s rule.
There is a school of thought that Mnangagwa will have to remove Chiwenga in order to revive the international re-engagement strategy. It’s probably true.
There is just one small flaw - Chiwenga appears to have informal control of Mnangagwa’s own presidential guard.
August 5, 2018Mnangagwa inauguration to wait for possible court challenge: Minister (NewsDay, Chronicle)
There is a school of thought that Mnangagwa will have to remove Chiwenga in order to revive the international re-engagement strategy. It’s probably true.
There is just one small flaw - Chiwenga appears to have informal control of Mnangagwa’s own presidential guard.
A legal challenge to the presidential election results could delay Mnangagwa’s inauguration as the country’s new president - although, since he’s also the sitting president, it won’t mean much in reality.
The inauguration is currently scheduled for Sunday 12 August, nine days after he was declared the winner of the election. Presidential spokesman George Charamba said they will proceed with the inauguration if there has not been a legal challenge within seven days of the result - giving Chamisa and the MDC Alliance until Friday, 10 August, to file a challenge. The chair of Chamisa’s MDC-T party, Morgan Komichi, told NewsDay that the Alliance has challenged results in 20 constituencies at the Electoral Court and might launch the presidential suit any time this week.
Chamisa claims that a tally by his MDC Alliance shows he got 56% of the presidential vote. But the Zimbabwe Election Support Network has effectively corroborated the official results, saying its projections gave Mnangagwa 50.7% of the vote - compared with the 50.8% official result - and gave Chamisa 45.8%, slightly more than the 44.3% that ZEC gave him.
MDC-T founding member Eddie Cross wrote on his blog on Friday that he believes “the presidential ballot will stand up to challenge,” and as such “any legal challenge should therefore be short lived. Another opposition figure, Lovemore Madhuku, who contested the presidential election for his National Constitutional Assembly and received 2, 738 votes has conceded defeat saying there was no rigging, according to NewZimbabwe.
In the past, as soon as Robert Mugabe was declared winner, he would be inaugurated within a day, but the nine days that Mnangagwa will wait before being sworn in shows he wants to be seen as magnanimous in victory. He knows that there is no way the Constitutional Court will rule otherwise - not only because he controls it, but also because ZEC’s disaggregated data, widely published today as advertisements, show that he won.
UK MPs slam Embassy’s pro-Zanu bias (Pindula News, Twitter, Twitter)
UK Ambassador Catriona Laing has denied claims by two British MPs that she favours Zanu-PF and “openly ridiculed” Nelson Chamisa ahead of a dinner where she introduced MPs Kate Hoey and Conor Burns to a group of Zimbabweans - most of whom, Hoey and Burns said, were Zanu-PF supporters.
Hoey this weekend published her and Burns’ report on their visit to Zimbabwe at the end of May. In it she said that “every element of civic society and politicians outside Zanu-PF had the belief that the UK Embassy - and in particular the Ambassador is biased in favour of the incumbent regime,” pointing in particular to how Ambassador Laing wore Mnangagwa’s trademark Zimbabwe scarf outside earlier this year on her visit to the UK - in a picture then retweeted by Mnangagwa himself.
On Twitter, Laing called Hoey and Burns’ story of the dinner “untrue”, saying she “did not ridicule Nelson Chamisa, who I recognise as a major political figure in Zimbabwe. I believe he and I have a good relationship and we meet regularly.”
The former colonial power still casts a long shadow over Zimbabwe - and the perception that the UK wanted a simple victory for Mnangagwa this time around is indeed pervasive. But since the post-election events have gone so horribly wrong, Laing and the government in London - which said it was “deeply concerned by the violence” - will be under pressure not to treat Mnangagwa any differently to how they treated the regime of Robert Mugabe.
Investor won’t flee Zimbabwe’s profitable platinum mine (Business Day)
Impala Platinum (Implats)’ Zimbabwe profitable operation is keeping the company in the black despite its loss-making mines in South Africa, an analyst at Nedbank told Business Day. "Impala’s Zimbabwe operation has always been profitable and a better performer," said Arnold van Graan, mining analyst at Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking. "It’s been ticking along nicely and essentially carrying the can and paying for the losses in Rustenburg." A restructuring of the Rustenburg operation is expected to bring heavy job losses, but the 5,942 jobs at its Zimplats operations are safe, the report says. Van Graan said the market would take some time to warm to the Zimbabwe story. "SA investors in particular are more sceptical", he said.
Investors who are already making money in Zimbabwe, and have got comfortable with the inherent risks, will of course be going nowhere - and despite the repression of political opposition, Mnangagwa’s pro-business reforms are likely to continue. But the impression of chaos in the post-election fallout has severely put back his hopes of projecting a country that is ‘open for business’.
Tweet of the Day:
For the avoidance of doubt: no presidential inauguration can take place on Monday.Ordinarily it would be on the 9th day after the announcement of results but if Adv Chamisa approaches the Con Crt to challenge the results,an inauguration is suspended until the matter is concluded pic.twitter.com/timzMSHybD
August 5, 2018Happening Today:
For the avoidance of doubt: no presidential inauguration can take place on Monday.Ordinarily it would be on the 9th day after the announcement of results but if Adv Chamisa approaches the Con Crt to challenge the results,an inauguration is suspended until the matter is concluded pic.twitter.com/timzMSHybD
August 5, 201824 MDC Alliance supporters in court on charges of public violence